Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the Gold Price Outlook 2026 following one of the most spectacular years for the precious metal in history.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold didn’t just perform well in 2025. It shattered expectations, posting one of its strongest annual returns in over 50 years.
As we move into the new fiscal year, the question on every investor’s mind is simple: Can this momentum be sustained, or is a correction on the horizon?
A Look Back: The Historic 2025 Surge
Before understanding the future, we must look at the data. 2025 was a landmark year where gold rose by more than 60 per cent. The metal set over 50 record highs throughout the year, culminating in a peak price of US$4,381.58 an ounce (approximately RM578 per gramme) in October.
This surge wasn’t accidental. It was fueled by a perfect storm of economic drivers:
-
Geopolitical Instability: Global conflicts drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
-
Weak US Dollar: A dipping dollar made gold cheaper for foreign holders.
-
Interest Rate Cuts: Lower rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
-
Fear of Equity Bubbles: Investors diversified away from shaky stock markets.
Gold Price Outlook 2026: What the WGC Predicts
Looking ahead, the Gold Price Outlook 2026 suggests a year defined by macroeconomic maneuvering. The World Gold Council’s report indicates that while the explosive growth of 2025 might stabilize, the floor for gold prices remains high.
The WGC noted, “Current prices largely reflect market consensus and may trade within a narrow band if existing conditions persist.”
However, there are two distinct scenarios to watch:
-
The Bull Case: If global economic growth slows down significantly and interest rates continue to fall to combat a recession, gold could see moderate to strong gains.
-
The Bear Case: If the second term of US President Donald Trump succeeds in boosting economic growth and reducing geopolitical risks, we may see a strengthening US dollar. This could weigh on gold prices, potentially causing a pullback.
The “Trump Factor” and Central Banks
A significant portion of the price action will depend on US policy. The WGC’s GRAM (Gold Return Attribution Model) highlighted that political and macroeconomic uncertainty during President Trump’s second term accounted for nearly 16 percentage points of last year’s gains.
Furthermore, Central Bank demand remains a critical pillar of support. While demand has dipped slightly below the record-shattering levels of 2023-2024, it remains well above the long-term average. This institutional buying provides a safety net for prices, preventing drastic crashes even during market corrections.
Conclusion
The Gold Price Outlook 2026 remains cautiously optimistic. While a repeat of the 60% surge is statistically unlikely, the fundamental drivers; uncertainty and central bank accumulation remain in play. For investors, the key will be watching US economic policies and the strength of the dollar.
Are you planning to add gold to your portfolio this year? Read our guide on How to Start Investing in Gold in Malaysia
